The Role of Nuclear Energy in Powering Universal Energy Abundance for Emerging Economies

Overview

Bayesian Energy is proud to announce our contribution to a major new report released by The Rockefeller Foundation examining how next-generation nuclear technologies could help emerging economies meet rapidly rising electricity demand. The Role of Nuclear Energy in Powering Universal Energy Abundance for Emerging Economies takes an evidence-based approach to exploring nuclear deployment across eight key markets: Brazil, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Philippines, Rwanda, and South Africa.

These countries are home to more than 2 billion people and represent some of the fastest-growing energy markets in the world. Using our proprietary power-system modelling platform Convexity, we simulated power system evolution from 2025 to 2050 under multiple scenarios with and without nuclear deployment to assess the potential for nuclear energy in these emerging economies.

Our modelling reveals that nuclear power — including small modular reactors (SMRs) — could deliver up to 30% of electricity generation and lower system costs by up to 31% by 2050 compared to renewables-only pathways, under the right policy and regulatory conditions.

Key Findings from Our Modelling

Commissioned by The Rockefeller Foundation and conducted by Bayesian Energy and Radiant Energy Group, this study combines detailed systems modelling with structured qualitative research and expert interviews. Our team used Convexity to model power system evolution across multiple scenarios, providing critical insights into the technical and economic feasibility of nuclear deployment in emerging markets.

Key findings from our analysis include:

• Complementary Technologies — Our modelling demonstrates that renewables and nuclear are complementary technologies rather than rivals. Developing both lessens the need to overbuild solar and storage to reach a zero-carbon system.
• Significant Cost Savings — Nuclear power could supply up to 30% of total power by 2050 in several markets while reducing overall system costs by as much as 31% when paired with ambitious renewable energy expansion.
• Reduced Infrastructure Requirements — Pathways with nuclear still rely on major renewable buildouts, but require far less storage and transmission infrastructure, meaning billions of dollars in avoided costs for countries where every dollar counts.
• Country-Specific Evidence — Our analysis provides new, country-specific evidence to help policymakers and partners assess where advanced nuclear solutions could fit within broader strategies for expanding clean, reliable power in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs).
• Technical Feasibility Assessment — We provide an integrated understanding of the technical feasibility and practical readiness for nuclear deployment across EMDEs, identifying key financial, institutional, and social barriers, as well as enabling factors such as governance capacity, policy design, and coordination mechanisms.

Powered by Convexity

This comprehensive analysis was made possible by Convexity, our proprietary power-system modelling platform. Convexity enabled us to efficiently model complex energy systems across eight diverse countries, simulating multiple scenarios and pathways from 2025 to 2050.

"Our modelling shows that nuclear can work with renewables and storage, not against them," said Aman Majid, co-founder of Bayesian Energy. "Pathways with nuclear still rely on major renewable buildouts, but require far less storage and transmission. That means billions of dollars in avoided costs for countries where every dollar counts — along with less land use, fewer transmission lines, and fewer permitting challenges. But those benefits only materialize if nuclear projects can be built on time and on budget and that's where the hard work begins."

The scale and complexity of this analysis — covering eight countries with varying energy systems, regulatory environments, and economic conditions — demonstrates Convexity's capability to handle large-scale, multi-country energy system modelling projects. Our platform's flexibility and power allowed us to explore numerous scenarios and provide robust, evidence-based insights to support critical policy decisions.

Regional Implications

The eight markets analyzed in this study — Brazil, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Philippines, Rwanda, and South Africa — are among the most promising in Africa, Asia, and Latin America for initiating nuclear deployment by 2030, based on their projected energy demand growth, industrialization trajectories, and existing policy interest in low-carbon technologies.

Asia

"These findings reveal a powerful opportunity for Asia," said Deepali Khanna, Senior Vice President and Head of Asia at The Rockefeller Foundation. "Nuclear power offers a clean, reliable, and affordable pathway to meeting energy demands while creating jobs and advancing sustainability."

Africa

"Nearly 700 million people today lack access to reliable power, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa," noted William Asiko, Vice President for Africa at The Rockefeller Foundation. "The modelling in this report shows how next-generation nuclear energy could expand energy access on the continent, which is critical for advancing long-term development and improving lives. What's more, nuclear supports higher-paid, longer-lasting jobs than many other clean energy technologies, making it an opportunity to drive economic growth and expand opportunity for people across Africa."

Latin America

"This report offers valuable insights for strengthening energy security and resilience in emerging economies, highlighting solutions that can be scaled to Latin America and the Caribbean," said Lyana Latorre, Vice President for Latin America and the Caribbean at The Rockefeller Foundation. "At this time of growing energy demand and climate instability, it is important that we consider every opportunity to ensure reliable, affordable power in Brazil and across the Americas, to unlock economic opportunity and advance well-being for all."

The Role of Philanthropy

Our analysis identifies a clear catalytic role for philanthropy in accelerating early-stage adoption of nuclear solutions. Despite philanthropy's historical absence from this sector, there are significant opportunities to support:

• Regulatory Readiness — Supporting the establishment of safety standards and regulatory frameworks
• De-risking — Helping governments de-risk investment decisions through early-stage support
• Civil Society Engagement — Strengthening public engagement and building social acceptance
• International Cooperation — Facilitating access to international expertise and best practices

The Rockefeller Foundation convened 20 experts from philanthropy, governments, civil society, and industry to discuss the implications of these findings and potential pathways to scale philanthropic support for nuclear energy in emerging markets and developing economies.

Global Context

This report comes at a critical moment in the global energy transition. As the role of nuclear in the energy transition has diminished in many national strategies over recent decades, rising energy demand and growing energy security concerns have led to renewed global interest in nuclear energy as a reliable, non-emitting source of baseload power.

Baseload generation from nuclear power complements renewable resources, helping to balance their intermittent generation and improving grid utilization. This is particularly important in emerging economies where grid infrastructure may be less developed and where reliable, continuous power is essential for economic growth and development.

The report was released just weeks after COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where nuclear energy featured prominently in global climate discussions. A new COP30 "stock-take" from the Clean Air Task Force highlights that the sector's challenge has shifted from political ambition to the practical ability to finance, regulate, and deploy advanced reactors at speed. Also at COP30, the World Nuclear Association announced the expansion of a global coalition committed to tripling nuclear capacity by 2050, while the IAEA underscored how nuclear science, technology, and energy systems are now firmly embedded in the official climate agenda.

Conclusion

This report represents a significant contribution to understanding the potential role of nuclear energy in emerging economies. Through our comprehensive modelling work using Convexity, we've provided evidence-based insights that can help policymakers, investors, and development organizations make informed decisions about energy system planning and investment.

The findings demonstrate that nuclear energy, when properly deployed alongside renewable energy sources, can play a meaningful role in meeting the rapidly growing energy demands of emerging economies while reducing system costs and infrastructure requirements. However, realizing these benefits requires addressing the financial, institutional, and social barriers identified in our analysis.

At Bayesian Energy, we're committed to providing the modelling tools and expertise needed to support evidence-based energy policy and investment decisions. This project demonstrates how Convexity can enable large-scale, multi-country energy system analysis that provides actionable insights for critical policy questions.